SINFONY – The Seamless INtegrated Forecasting sYstem of DWD

Project SINFONY is an ongoing project at DWD for developing the new „Seamless INtegrated FOrecastINg sYstem—SINFONY“ that yields very-short-range forecasts from 0-12 hours without inconsistencies. Presently, forecasts of up to 2 h are based upon nowcasting whereas longer forecasts are mainly done by NWP, both separately and independently. There is no seamless transition of structures in forecast fields over lead time from Nowcasting to NWP.

To narrow down this gap, SINFONY works on different aspects oft the problem with an „integrated“ team: Improving the two forecast techniques by themselves (Nowcasting and NWP with its associated ensemble data assimilation) and, in postprocessing, develop optimally combined „seamless“ forecast products for each lead time. The combined products shall also reduce the vast forecast information to a manageable level to be efficiently used in forecasting practice. The last point is especially important because SINFONY will be based on full NWP- and Nowcasting ensembles at all levels. In a first project stage the focus will be upon precipitation related quantities for summertime convection (thunderstorms and heavy precipitation) such as precipitation and radar reflectivity fields as well as „convective cell objects“.

In the first presentation the general concept of SINFONY will be discussed, as well as its specific methods of radar based Nowcasting products and first test results.