SINFONY – The Seamless INtegrated FOrecastiNg sYstem of DWD III

Project SINFONY is an ongoing project at DWD for developing the new „Seamless INtegrated FOrecastINg sYstem—SINFONY“ that yields very-short-range forecasts from 0-12 hours without inconsistencies. Presently, forecasts of up to 2 h are based upon nowcasting whereas longer forecasts are mainly done by NWP, both separately and independently. There is no seamless transition of structures in forecast fields over lead time from Nowcasting to NWP.

To narrow down this gap, SINFONY works on different aspects oft the problem with an „integrated“ team: Improving the two forecast techniques by themselves (Nowcasting and NWP with its associated ensemble data assimilation) and, in postprocessing, develop optimally combined „seamless“ forecast products for each lead time. The combined products shall also reduce the vast forecast information to a manageable level to be efficiently used in forecasting practice. The last point is especially important because SINFONY will be based on full NWP- and Nowcasting ensembles at all levels. In a first project stage the focus will be upon precipitation related quantities for summertime convection (thunderstorms and heavy precipitation) such as precipitation and radar reflectivity fields as well as „convective cell objects“.

In this third presentation on SINFONY the general concept and the NWP component will shortly be recapitulated before the focus will be laid on recent developments and future plans, which comprises advanced data assimilation of new remote sensing data sources (3D radar volume data, visible satellite channels, lightning) and hourly new forecasts of a regional convection allowing km-scale ICON-D2 model (“Rapid Update Cycle”). In addition, to support a quick and easy interpretation, SINFONY seeks to strengthen the visualization of model forecasts in observation space (radar, satellite, cell objects).